经济学术杂志（经济学人精读核扩散）

Proliferation

Who will go nuclear next?

The world is facing an upsurge of proliferation. To stop it, nuclear powers need to act

Thirty-one countries, from Brazil to Sweden, have flirted with nuclear weapons at one time or another. Seventeen launched a formal weapons programme. Just ten produced a deliverable bomb. Today nine states possess nuclear arms, no more than a quarter-century ago. Yet the long struggle to stop the world’s deadliest weapons from spreading is about to get harder.

upsurge 意思是名词“急剧上升；飙升”proliferation 指“扩散，激增”，在本文语境中指核扩散。动词是proliferateflirt with sth. 意思是“玩儿似地想做某事”; flirt with sb. 指“调情”nuclear arms 指“核武器”

In the past 20 years most countries with nuclear ambitions have been geopolitical minnows, like Libya and Syria. In the next decade the threat is likely to include economic and diplomatic heavy weights whose ambitions would be harder to restrain. China’s rapidly increasing regional dominance and North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal haunt South Korea and Japan, two of Asia’s largest powers. Iran’s belligerence and its nuclear programme loom over the likes of Saudi Arabia and Turkey (see Briefing). Proliferation is not a chain reaction, but it is contagious. Once the restraints start to weaken they can fail rapidly.

minnow 本指“无足轻重的（小）公司”，在这里指小的国家。diplomatic 意思是“外交的”，名词是diplomacyrestrain 指“约束，控制”arsenal 意思是“（统称）武器”，nuclear arsenal 就指“核武器”，相当于nuclear armshaunt 意思是“长期不断地缠扰（某人）；萦绕某人心头”，用在这是不是很形象！belligerence 是belligerent的名词形式，belligerent意思是“好斗的；挑衅的”loom 意思是“赫然耸现；（尤指）令人惊恐地隐现”contagious 本指“（疾病）接触传染的”，名词是contagion

The nuclear omens are bad. Arms control between America and Russia, which saw cuts of 38,000 warheads—a 79% fall—in 1991-2010, has dwindled. On January 26th Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin agreed to extend the last remaining pact, the New start treaty, for five years. That is welcome, but prospects for a follow-on are dim. China, India, North Korea and Pakistan are all expanding and modernising their nuclear forces. There is dismal progress towards global disarmament, the ultimate aim of the Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT), the cornerstone of the nuclear order. A new treaty banning the bomb, which was signed by 86 countries and came into force on January 22nd, channels the frustration among nuclear have-nots. It accomplishes little else.

omen 意思是“预兆；前兆”warhead 指“（导弹的）弹头”，nuclear warheads 就是核弹头dwindle 意思是“（逐渐）减少”pact 指“条约；协议；公约”，与下文 treaty（（国家之间的）条约，协定）意思相近。dim 意思是“（前景）暗淡的，不明朗的”dismal 指“差劲的；不怎么样的”disarmament 指“裁减军备（尤指核武器）”cornerstone 表示“最重要部分；基础；基石”channel 用作动词，意思是“（利用某途径）提供帮助”

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