印度为什么穷的原因（1991年内外交困下的印度如何断臂求生）

但凡危机，也因教训深刻，能催生改革和经济的新生。印度1991年经历了一次流动性危机。原因在于其最主要的贸易伙伴Soviet Union一夜化为乌有，所以，外汇收入少了一大块，国际收支出现了危机。这种缺少硬通货的危机，与其他新兴市场的流动性危机类似，解决方案也类似，只能从IMF那里借流动性。

IMF的钱拿着是最烫手的，因为它附带有“严父”般的改革条件。不过，也正是这些不得不从的条件，将印度带出了长达四十年、死气沉沉的计划经济，走上了放松管制的改革道路。以取消和减少审批、鼓励和吸引外资为主要标志和动力，经济收获改革红利，步入增长的快车道。在美版知乎Quora上，印度网友提问道：印度经济曾濒临崩溃，1991年内外交困下印度如何断臂求生？这个问题引起各国网友的围观和热议，我们看看他们的观点。

问题

印度问题专家萨蒂扬的回答

1. Most countries in the world depend on economic globalization in many aspects. For India, we rely on oil from West Asia, gold from South Africa, technology from the United states, and rubber from Southeast Asia. In order to buy these products from the world market, we need US dollars. The only way to earn US dollars is to sell enough products (exports) in global economic activities.

1.世界上大多数国家在很多方面都依赖于经济全球化。对于印度来说，我们依赖从西亚获得石油，从南非获得黄金，从美国获得技术，从东南亚获得橡胶。为了从世界市场购买这些产品，我们需要美元，赚取美元的唯一途径是在全球经济活动中销售足够的产品（出口）。

Since the 1960s, India's exports have been dependent on the Soviet Union, because India has failed to develop good economic relations with the United States and Western Europe. Until 1991, when the Soviet Union was divided into 15 countries, India encountered a major problem. Our main buyers were in chaos, leading to a sharp decline in exports.

自20世纪60年代以来，印度的出口一直依赖苏联，因为印度未能与美国和西欧发展良好的经济关系。直到1991年，苏联分裂为15个国家，印度遇到了一个重大问题，我们的主要买家陷入了混乱，导致出口大幅下降。

2. At the same time, Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990. In early 1991, the United States went to war with Iraq. The oil fields began to burn, making it difficult for ships to reach the Persian Gulf. Iraq and Kuwait are our major oil suppliers. The war led to the destruction of our oil imports and a sharp rise in prices, which doubled in a few months. The Gulf War and the oil price shock in 1990 greatly damaged India's economic environment.

2.与此同时，1990年萨达姆·侯赛因（Saddam Hussein）入侵科威特。1991年初美国与伊拉克开战。油田开始燃烧，船只很难抵达波斯湾。伊拉克和科威特是我们的石油大供应商。战争导致我们的石油进口遭到破坏，价格大幅上涨，在几个月内翻了一番。海湾战争和1990年的油价震荡极大地破坏了印度的经济环境。

3. In the late 1980s, India's political system was collapsing. Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was involved in a series of troubles - the Bofos scandal, the tragic IPKF incident, and the Shah Bano case, which finally led to his resignation in 1989. Next came two terrible leaders who were both unstable and incompetent. This has had a huge negative impact on India's economy, and its economic development has been completely forgotten in the political crisis. In 1991, the interim government collapsed. Until 1991, Narasimha Rao was sworn in as Prime Minister.

3.在20世纪80年代末，印度的政治体系正在崩溃。首相拉吉夫·甘地卷入了一系列麻烦之中——博福斯丑闻、IPKF悲惨事件、沙赫·巴诺案，最终导致他于1989年下台。接下来的是两位既不稳定又无能的可怕领导人。这对印度经济产生了巨大负面影响，经济发展在政治危机中被完全遗忘。1991年，这个临时政府崩溃了。直到1991年纳拉西姆哈·拉奥宣誓就任总理。

Therefore, 1991 was a year of crisis for India, and this triple crisis made India yield. On the one hand, our main buyer has disappeared. On the other hand, our main sellers are in a state of war. In the middle stage, our production actually stopped because of the political crisis. We have no money to buy necessities such as crude oil and food from other parts of the world. This is called "India's balance of payments crisis", which means that India cannot balance its account and its exports are far lower than its imports.

因此，1991年对印度来说是危机之年，这场三重危机使印度屈服。一方面，我们的主要买家不见了。另一方面，我们的主要卖家处于战争状态。在中间阶段，我们的生产实际上因政治危机而停止。我们没有钱从世界其他地方购买原油和食品等必需品。这被称为“印度国际收支危机”，意味着印度无法平衡其账户，出口远远低于进口。

Because we don't have many dollars, we begged the International Monetary Fund, the pawnshop in the world. They asked us to mortgage our gold reserves in exchange for a temporary loan of 3.9 billion US dollars (which was a huge amount for India at that time). India had to transfer its gold reserves from India to foreign countries. We delivered 67 tons of gold by two planes - one to London and the other to Switzerland, hoping to get assistance.

因为我们没有多少美元，所以我们可怜巴巴地去乞求国际货币基金组织——世界上的当铺。他们要求我们抵押我们的黄金储备，以换取39亿美元的临时贷款（当时对印度来说是一笔巨大的金额），印度不得不将黄金库存从印度转移到国外。我们用两架飞机运送了67吨黄金——一架飞往伦敦，另一架飞往瑞士，以期获得援助。

How did India recover?

印度是怎么缓过来的呢？

On June 21, 1991, after Rao became China's Prime Minister, India began its "economic liberalization policy". In essence, this is a turning point for some stupid policies implemented by Nehru and his family in our country (sorry, I can't resist the sarcasm against Nehru).

1991年6月21日，拉奥成为我国总理后，印度开始了“经济自由化政策”。从本质上讲，这是尼赫鲁及其家人在我国实施的一些愚蠢政策的转机（抱歉，无法抗拒对尼赫鲁的挖苦）。

1. We have lifted many import restrictions. Until 1991, we imposed 400% tariffs on many products. The industry had to beg the government to relax. By 1991, tariffs on many products had decreased significantly. This has brought new growth to our industry.

1.我们取消了许多进口限制。直到1991年，我们对许多产品征收400%的关税。工业界不得不乞求政府放松。到1991年，许多产品的关税大幅降低。这给我们的行业带来了新的增长。

2. The import license was abolished. Until 1991, the import of anything required a license, which was always difficult to handle due to the corruption of administrative agencies.

2.进口许可证被废除。直到1991年，进口任何东西都需要许可证，而由于行政机构的腐败这个许可证总是很难办理。

3. The government has cancelled the production license of many industries. Before 1991, you needed government permission to produce what and how much. All of a sudden, restrictions were lifted in many industries.

3.政府取消了许多行业的生产许可。1991年之前，你们需要政府的许可才能生产什么和生产多少。一下子，许多行业取消了限制。

4. With the help of two political stars, Montek Singh and Manmohan Singh, the domestic economy is back on track. Our local industry has been greatly stimulated and the rules of the stock market have been relaxed.

4.凭借两位政治明星——蒙特克·辛格和曼莫汉·辛格，使国内经济重回正轨。我们的地方工业受到了巨大的刺激，股市规则放宽。

5. Manmohan abolished the "gold smuggling" law and allowed Indian nationals to bring back 5 kilograms of gold for free.

5.曼莫汉废除了“黄金走私”法规，他允许印度侨民免费带回5公斤黄金。

6. Foreign investors are allowed to invest and start business. Before that, India had been living in the paranoia of the East India Company. Many sectors are open to foreign investment and cooperation. Now, companies like Coca Cola and Nike may join in. Suddenly, the Bombay Stock Exchange found life.

6.允许外国投资者前来投资兴业。在此之前，印度一直生活在东印度公司的偏执中。许多部门开放供外国投资和合作。现在，可口可乐和耐克等公司可能会加入进来。突然，孟买证券交易所找到了生命。

7. The government began to sell some businesses to the private sector. This has brought capital flow and a new round of high efficiency.

7.政府开始向私营部门出售部分业务。这带来了资金流和新一轮效率高涨。

In short, India's liberalization means restoring common sense that has been hard to find in our economic circle since 1947. But we have just cancelled some rules. India's economic system is not perfect, and there is still a long way to go.

简而言之，印度的自由化意味着恢复了自1947年以来在我们经济圈中很难找到的常识。但我们只是取消了一些规则，印度的经济制度还不完善，还有很长的路要走。

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印度专家米什拉的回答

Let me start from the beginning. My answer will begin in 1944 and end in 1991.

让我从头开始。我的回答将从1944年开始，到1991年结束。

Policies are made to achieve their goals. India's industrial policy aims to achieve faster economic growth through rapid industrialization and make the economy self reliant.

制定政策是为了达到目的。印度的产业政策旨在通过快速工业化实现更快的经济增长，并使经济自力更生。

At the time of independence, the country's industrial sector was in a downturn, because in the two centuries of British rule, the industrial sector was not promoted, but ignored. The exploitation policy they formulated to safeguard the interests of their home country is the main reason for India's lack of industrialization.

独立时，该国的工业部门处于低迷状态，因为在英国统治的两个世纪里，工业部门没有得到促进，而是被忽视了。他们为维护母国利益而制定的剥削政策是印度缺乏工业化的主要原因。

India is the raw material supplier and market of British goods. In 1944, India formulated the Bombay Plan, which was the first effort of the famous industrialists in the country to formulate the country's industrial policy by emphasizing heavy industry. From this perspective, we can see India's desire for industrialization.

印度是英国商品的原材料供应商和市场。1944年，印度制定了孟买计划，这是该国著名工业家通过强调重工业来制定该国工业政策的第一次努力，从这个角度可以看出印度工业化的愿望。

On the basis of the Bombay Plan, the first step of industrialization was taken in the form of the 1948 industrial policy resolution. It has laid a broad outline for the industrialization strategy. The basic objective is to lay the foundation for a mixed economy in which the public and private sectors play an important role in industrial development.

在孟买计划的基础上，以1948年工业政策决议的形式迈出了工业化的第一步。它为工业化战略奠定了广阔的轮廓。基本目标是为混合经济奠定基础，使公共和私营部门在工业发展中发挥重要作用。

However, in order to ensure the development as planned and Pandit Nehru's inclination towards Fabian socialism, the government has implemented strict supervision on the private sector in the form of licenses. Therefore, the public sector should be given a greater role.

但为了确保按照计划发展，以及潘迪特·尼赫鲁对费边社会主义的倾向，政府以许可证的形式对私营部门实施了严厉的监管。因此，赋予公共部门更大的作用。

The Industry (Development and Regulation) Act 1951 provides the necessary means for the Government to enforce such restrictions. This paved the way for the Industrial Policy Resolution of 1956, which introduced patent licensing. In fact, it was the first comprehensive statement on India's industrial development strategy.

1951年《工业（发展和监管）法》为政府实施此类限制提供了必要的手段。这为《1956年工业政策决议》铺平了道路，该决议引入了专利许可，实际上是关于印度工业发展战略的第一份全面声明。

The Industrial Policy Resolution in 1956 was formed by the Mahalanobis growth model, which emphasized the role of heavy industry in the long-term higher growth path. These resolutions expand the scope of the public sector, with the basic goal of accelerating economic growth and promoting the industrialization process.

1956年的《产业政策决议》是由马哈拉诺比斯增长模型形成的，该模型强调重工业在长期更高增长路径中的作用。这些决议扩大了公共部门的范围，其基本目标是加速经济增长和推动工业化进程。

The policy also aims to narrow the regional gap by developing a broad industrial base and promoting small-scale industries and cottage industries, which have great potential to provide large-scale employment. This policy was consistent with the prevailing belief at that time, namely, to achieve self-sufficiency. However, the policy has encountered many failures in the implementation process, and the results are just contrary to expectations, that is, regional differences and economic power concentration.

该政策还旨在通过发展广泛的工业基础和推动小规模工业和家庭手工业来缩小地区差距，因为它们具有提供大规模就业的巨大潜力。这项政策与当时流行的信念保持一致，即实现自给自足。但是，该政策在实施过程中遇到了许多失败，其结果恰恰与预期相反，即区域差异和经济力量集中。

Therefore, the Monopoly Investigation Commission (MIC) was established in 1964 to examine various aspects related to the concentration of economic power and the operation of industrial licenses. The report emphasized the contribution of planned economy to industrial growth, and blamed the license system for allowing large enterprises to obtain too much license share, which led to pre emption and foreclosure of production capacity.

因此，1964年成立了垄断调查委员会（MIC），以审查与经济权力集中和工业许可证操作有关的各个方面。该报告强调计划经济对工业增长的贡献，同时指责许可证制度使大企业获得了过多的许可证份额，导致了产能的先发制人和丧失抵押品赎回权。

Subsequently, an industry license investigation committee recommended that only when the core and heavy investment sectors set up industries, must they issue licenses to large industrial houses.

随后，一个工业许可证调查委员会建议，只有在核心和重投资部门设立产业时，才必须向大型工业房屋发放许可证。

In order to further control the concentration of economic power, the Monopoly and Restrictive Trade Practices Law (MRTP) was introduced. Large industries are designated as MRTP companies and are eligible to participate in industries dedicated to non-governmental or small industries.

为了进一步控制经济权力的集中，出台了《垄断和限制性贸易惯例法》（MRTP）。大型行业被指定为MRTP公司，并有资格参与非政府或小型行业专用的行业。

Both the industrial license policy and the 1973 industrial policy emphasized the necessity of controlling the concentration of wealth and attached importance to small and medium-sized industries. The industrial policy in 1977 continued to favor small-scale industries, and took a step forward by introducing regional industrial centers to support SSI.

工业许可证政策和1973年工业政策都强调控制财富集中的必要性，并重视中小型工业。1977年的产业政策继续偏袒小规模产业，通过引入地区工业中心为SSI提供支持，向前迈出了一步。

It also introduced a new category called "small sector" and greatly expanded the reserve list of small-scale industries. However, due to external shocks (war), internal disturbances (emergencies) and implementation problems, the policy failed to have a significant impact. The soaring economic situation led to the formulation of the industrial policy in 1980, laying the seeds for liberalization.

它还引入了称为“小部门”的新类别，并大大扩展了小规模产业的储备清单。但由于外因冲击（战争）、内部动乱（紧急情况）和执行问题，该政策未能产生重大影响。飞涨的经济形势导致制定了1980年的产业政策，为自由化埋下了种子。

The Industrial Policy in 1980 emphasized the promotion of domestic market competition, technology upgrading and industrial modernization, while focusing on optimizing the use of installed capacity to ensure higher productivity, higher employment level and eliminate regional disparities. Policy measures were announced to restore the efficiency of the PSU while providing for automatic expansion.

1980年的《产业政策》强调促进国内市场竞争、技术升级和工业现代化，同时注重优化利用装机容量，以确保更高的生产力、更高的就业水平、消除地区差距等。宣布了政策措施，以恢复PSU的效率，同时规定自动扩展。

PSU is free from many restrictions and has greater autonomy. Major steps have been taken to deregulate all industries except those on the negative list. The "limited liberalization" initiated in the 1980s reached its peak in 1991 with a landmark policy change.

PSU不受许多限制，拥有更大的自主权。采取了主要步骤，取消了对所有行业的管制，但负面清单所列行业除外。1980年代发起的“有限自由化”在1991年以里程碑式的政策变化达到了顶峰。

The industrial policy of 1991 marked the paradigm shift of industrial policy and development evaluation. The increase of fiscal deficit and monetization deficit and the global financial crisis (Gulf War, oil crisis) have played an important role in the beginning of a new chapter in the history of industrial policy and economic growth.

1991年的工业政策标志着工业政策和发展评估的范式转变。财政赤字和货币化赤字的增加以及全球金融危机（海湾战争、石油危机）在工业政策和经济增长历史新篇章的开始发挥了重要作用。

The goal of this policy is to "maintain the continuous growth of productivity, increase paid employment, achieve the best use of human resources, achieve international competitiveness, and turn India into a major player on the global stage".

该政策的目标是“保持生产力的持续增长，增加有报酬的就业，实现人力资源的最佳利用，实现国际竞争力，并将印度转变为全球舞台上的主要参与者”。

Obviously, the focus of the policy is to liberate the industry from bureaucratic control.

显然，该政策的重点是将该行业从官僚控制中解放出来。

Important reforms brought about by the policy include:

该政策带来的重要改革包括：

• Cancellation of industrial licenses in most industries, and only a few industries are significant because of strategic and safety issues, as well as social and environmental issues.

•取消大多数行业的工业许可证，只有少数行业因战略和安全问题以及社会环境问题而具有重要意义。

• The important role of foreign direct investment. 51% of foreign direct investment is allowed to enter heavy industry and important technology industries.

•给予外国直接投资的重要作用。51%的外国直接投资允许进入重工业和技术重要行业。

• Automatically approve technical agreements to promote technology and hire foreign technical experts.

•自动批准技术协议，以促进技术和雇用外国技术专家。

• Reorganize PSUs to increase productivity, prevent over staffing, upgrade technology, and improve returns.

•重组PSU，以提高生产力、防止人员过度配置、技术升级和提高回报率。

• Eliminate investment in PSUs to increase resources and private participation.

•取消对PSU的投资，以增加资源和私人参与。

The policy recognizes that government intervention in investment decisions of large companies through the MRTP Act has proved to be an obstacle to industrial growth. Therefore, the policy focuses more on controlling unfair and restrictive trade practices. Replaced the provisions restricting mergers, consolidations and acquisitions.

该政策认识到，政府通过MRTP法案对大公司投资决策的干预已被证明对工业增长构成阻碍。因此，该政策的重点更多地是控制不公平和限制性的贸易做法。取代了限制合并、合并和收购的规定。

Some measures are mentioned below:

下面提到一些措施:

• The Indian Competition Commission was established in 2002 to prevent practices that adversely affect market competition.

•2002年设立了印度竞争委员会，以防止对市场竞争产生不利影响的做法。

• In 1997, a new northeast industrial policy was introduced to alleviate the regional imbalance caused by economic growth.

•1997年出台了一项新的东北工业政策，以缓解经济增长造成的区域失衡。

• Focus on the divestment of PSU, from selling minority equity to strategic equity.

•关注PSU的撤资，从出售少数股权转向战略股权。

• Pay attention to PP, and the government plays a facilitating role rather than a regulatory role.

•关注PP，政府发挥促进作用而非监管作用。

• FDI restrictions have increased in almost all sectors, including defence and telecommunications.

•包括国防和电信在内的几乎所有部门的外国直接投资限制都有所增加。

结论

From the perspective of the evolution of industrial policies, the role of government in development is extensive. The road of industrial development has been developing over time. At the initial stage, it tried to establish a local base for economic activities. It tries to rescue the domestic sector from foreign fluctuations. We are not equipped yet.

从产业政策的演变来看，政府在发展中的作用是广泛的。工业发展的道路随着时间的推移而不断发展。在最初阶段，它努力为经济活动建立一个本土基地。它试图将国内部门从国外波动中拯救出来。我们还没有装备。

It hinders the fierce competition of domestic industries, thus leading to low efficiency and limiting its ability to expand employment opportunities. The emphasis on self-reliance and lack of R&D investment have become barriers to technological development, leading to poor product quality. Today, the idea that foreign goods are superior to Indian goods is still prevalent.

它阻碍了国内产业的激烈竞争，因此导致效率低下，限制了其扩大就业机会的能力。注重自力更生和缺乏研发投资成为技术发展的障碍，从而导致产品质量低劣。如今，外国商品优于印度商品的观念仍然盛行。

Nevertheless, before assessing the progress and methods of follow-up industrial policies, it is important to keep in mind the national situation after two centuries of exploitation and separation of suffering.

尽管如此，在评估后续产业政策的进展和方法之前，必须牢记两个世纪的剥削和痛苦分离后的国家状况。

Lack of entrepreneurial skills, low literacy rate, unskilled labor force and lack of technology are important characteristics of India's economy before independence.

缺乏创业技能、识字率低、非熟练劳动力、缺乏技术等是独立前印度经济的重要特征。

In view of this, these plans and policies have played an important role and laid a solid foundation for the current industrial policy.

有鉴于此，这些计划和政策发挥了重要作用，为当前的产业政策奠定了坚实的基础。

,